India General Elections 2024: Will Modi Secure a Third Term?

26 May 2024

As the people of India brace themselves for the final stretch of the General Elections, all eyes are set on June 4th, when the votes will be tallied and the results declared. This monumental election, conducted in seven phases, is the largest in history, surpassing the previous record set in 2019. With approximately 70% of the population, or 970 million eligible voters, taking part, this is democracy at its grandest scale.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) reports a voter turnout of 66.95% by the end of the first four phases, with the fifth phase seeing 62.2%. The final rounds of voting are scheduled for May 25th and June 1st. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a third consecutive term, the stakes are incredibly high.

The elections are a contest for 543 Lok Sabha seats. In 2014, Modi's party, the BJP, and its allies secured 336 seats, which jumped to 353 in 2019. This time, they are ambitiously aiming for over 400 seats, hoping to decisively overpower the opposition.

Understanding the Depth and Breadth of the Election

Before delving into the performance of the incumbent government and the challenges facing the country, it’s essential to grasp the magnitude of this election. Global politics is witnessing a shift towards right-wing ideologies, and India has mirrored this trend over the last decade. Political analysts note that Indian politics has become increasingly polarized.

The 2024 General Elections are primarily a battle between two major alliances: the ruling NDA (National Democratic Alliance), which represents center-right to right-wing parties, and the opposition INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), which represents center-left to left-wing parties. The NDA, led by the BJP, includes around 29 parties, while the INDIA alliance, led by the INC, encompasses about 37 parties. Additionally, notable parties like the BSP and BJD, along with over 15 other parties, are contesting independently without aligning with either of the alliances.

BJP's Performance and Ambitions

Reflecting on the last decade, the BJP-led government boasts significant achievements, as outlined in its 2024 manifesto. Key highlights include:

For Poor Families and the Underprivileged:

• PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana: Over 800 million citizens receive free rations.

• Financial Inclusion: More than 500 million people joined the banking system through PM Jan Dhan accounts.

• Housing and Water: Over 40 million families received homes, and 140 million families gained access to clean tap water.

• Poverty Alleviation: The inclusive approach lifted 250 million people out of poverty.

Empowering Women:

• PM Ujjwala Yojana: Over 100 million women received free gas connections.

• Sanitation and Health: Initiatives like the Swachh Bharat Mission and affordable sanitary pads improved women's health and dignity.

• Legislation: The Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam provides reservation for women in legislative bodies.

Opportunities for Youth:

• Educational Institutions: Establishment of numerous IITs, IIITs, IIMs, AIIMS, and universities.

• Skill Development: Over 14 million youths trained under the PM Kaushal Vikas Yojana.

• Startup Ecosystem: India has developed the world's third-largest startup ecosystem.

Agricultural Support:

• PM KISAN: Annual financial support to over 110 million farmers.

• Budget Increases: The agricultural budget has seen a five-fold increase since 2013.

Infrastructural Growth:

• Highways and Railways: Constructing 28 km of national highways and 14.5 km of railway lines every day.

• Metro Services: Expanded to over 20 cities.

• Rural Roads: 3.7 lakh km constructed under the PM Gram Sadak Yojana.

• Ports and Airports: Doubled the capacity and number of operational airports.

• Northeast Connectivity: Significant improvements through the expansion of roads, bridges, railways, and airports.

• 5G Rollout: Achieved the fastest rollout in the world with the most affordable data prices.

India’s Security:

• Terrorism: Zero major terror attacks in any city since 2014.

• Article 370: Revocation led to a significant reduction in violence in Jammu and Kashmir.

• Left-Wing Extremism: 52% reduction in related violence.

• Northeast Insurgency: 71% reduction in violence, resulting in the removal of AFSPA from most areas.

India at Global Stage:

• Evacuation Efforts: Over 15 million citizens were safely evacuated in distress situations.

• G20 Summit: Successfully hosted with 100% consensus on the New Delhi Declaration.

• Voice of the Global South: India's influence in global forums has increased.

• INR Trade: Initiated trading in INR with 27 partner countries.

• COVID Assistance: Provided vaccines and medicines to over 100 countries through the Vaccine Maitri initiative.

• Space Exploration: First country in the world to successfully land near the South Pole of the moon with Chandrayaan 3.

• International Recognition: The UN declared June 21st as the International Day of Yoga.

Other Notable Achievements:

• Reservation for Economically Weaker Sections: Instituted a 10% reservation.

• Vibrant Villages Programme: Development of 662 border villages with an outlay of ₹4,800 crore.

• Cultural Revitalization: Realization of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and renovation of significant temples like Shri Kashi Vishwanath, Shri Ujjain Mahakal, and Shri Kedarnath.

The Path Forward: BJP's Vision for the Next Five Years

The BJP's manifesto also outlines ambitious plans for the future:

For Poor Families and the Underprivileged:

• Free Ration: Continuing the distribution of free rations for the next five years.

• Housing: Expanding the PM Awas Yojana to ensure quality housing for all poor families.

• Slum Redevelopment: Transforming slum areas.

• Free Electricity: Providing free electricity under the PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana.

For Middle-Class Families:

• Home Ownership: Facilitating home ownership through regulatory reforms and cost reductions.

• Employment: Creating high-value jobs and expanding the startup ecosystem to smaller cities.

For Women:

• Workforce Participation: Increasing women's participation in the workforce and sports.

• Health Initiatives: Launching initiatives to eliminate cervical cancer and other health issues.

For Youth:

• Transparent Exams: Preventing paper leaks and conducting transparent public exams.

• Startup Ecosystem: Expanding funding and mentorship for startups.

For Senior Citizens:

• Government Services: Delivering services at their doorstep.

• Digital Empowerment: Promoting digital literacy among seniors.

• Infrastructure: Ensuring senior citizen-friendly public infrastructure.

For Farmers:

• Agricultural Clusters: Establishing clusters for essential crops and improving storage facilities.

• Nutri-Hub: Positioning India as a global hub for nutrition.

• Agri-Infrastructure: Expanding agricultural infrastructure and dairy cooperatives.

For the Fishing Community:

• Insurance: Providing insurance for fisheries.

• Production Clusters: Developing clusters for production and processing.

• Satellite Imagery: Using satellite technology to protect fishermen.

For the Labor Community:

• Wages and Services: Reviewing national wages periodically and enhancing train services for migrant workers.

• Social Security: Including auto, taxi, truck, and other drivers in social security schemes.

For Small Traders and Businesses:

• Working Capital: Providing easy access to working capital.

• Simplified Laws: Simplifying compliances and laws.

• Global Hub: Transforming India into a global hub for toy manufacturing and other industries.

Infrastructural Growth:

• Railway Stations: Building world-class railway stations.

• High-Speed Trains: Expanding the network of new-age and bullet trains.

• Metro Expansion: Increasing the metro network.

• Expressways and Ring Roads: Expanding expressways and ring roads.

• Electric Vehicles: Increasing EV fleets and establishing charging stations.

• Airports: Expanding international airports.

• Water Metro: Developing water metro systems.

• Digital Revolution: Facilitating a 6G digital revolution.

• Energy Independence: Achieving energy independence by 2047 through electric mobility, renewable energy, and improved energy efficiency.

• Green Hydrogen and Nuclear Energy: Expanding green hydrogen production and nuclear energy capacity.

India at Global Stage:

• Economic Ambitions: Striving to become the world's third-largest economy through robust economic policies.

• Manufacturing Hub: Aiming to be a trusted global manufacturing leader by simplifying regulatory processes, investing in infrastructure, attracting capital, and boosting research and development.

• Food Processing Industry: Building a globally competitive food processing sector.

• Railway Manufacturing: Positioning India as a global hub for railway manufacturing.

• Strategic Minerals: Developing industries for rare earths and strategic minerals.

• Textile Manufacturing: Elevating India to a global leader in textile production.

• UN Security Council: Committed to securing permanent membership to enhance India's role in global decision-making.

• Digital Public Infrastructure: Taking India's digital infrastructure model globally.

• Space Leadership: Leading in space exploration and technology.

• Cultural Heritage: Working to repatriate illegally taken idols and artifacts.

India’s Security:

• Uniform Civil Code: Implementing a uniform civil code.

• Police Modernization: Modernizing the police forces.

• Extremism: Eradicating left-wing extremism.

• CAA Implementation: Implementing the Citizenship Amendment Act.

• Counter-Terrorism: Defending against all terrorism threats - at home and abroad

• Border Infrastructure: Accelerating infrastructure development along borders with China, Pakistan, and Myanmar.

Additional Goals:

• Satellite Townships: Encouraging the development of new satellite townships near metro cities.

• Sustainable Cities: Fostering the development of sustainable cities.

• Ayodhya Development: Holistic development of Ayodhya.

• Cultural Promotion: Translating and adapting ancient Indian literary works into foreign languages.

• Thematic Circuits: Creating thematic circuits to promote cultural experiences.

• 'Wed in India' Campaign: Promoting India as a wedding destination.

• Unified Elections: Working towards implementing "One Nation, One Election."

Opposition's Concerns

Meanwhile, the opposition highlights issues such as unemployment, inflation, sectarian tensions, and the perceived erosion of democratic freedoms. They argue that the current government has failed to handle regional politics, particularly with neighbors like China, Pakistan, and the Maldives.

The People's Choice

Amidst the myriad points of contention and comparisons drawn, and amidst the fervent debates and discussions, the ultimate verdict rests in the hands of the voters. Will they grant Narendra Modi a third term, signaling satisfaction with the BJP's governance, or will they opt for a change by reviving the Grand Old Party, offering respite to the opposition? As the country awaits June 4th, the outcome will reflect the true pulse of the nation.

Should Modi clinch a third consecutive term, it will serve as a resounding validation of the BJP-led government's ability to fulfill its promises, indicative of the electorate's contentment. Conversely, the opposition must reflect on this outcome, recognizing the disparity between their ideals and the desires of the Indian electorate. To truly resonate with the public, one must prioritize their needs over personal agendas.

In the end, whether it's "400 Paar" or “Tadipaar”, India's democracy continues to thrive and evolve, showcasing the collective will of its people.